The Coming War

Back on Rosh Hashanah 5771 (September 2010) I gave a sermon exhorting the need to stand with Israel.  A number of factors motivated me to give that sermon - not least my fear that Israel would be forced to attack Iran before the year was out.


My timing was wrong, but this morning the Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reports that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes Israel could attack Iran within the next few months.  

Why Secretary Panetta is announcing this publicly is a matter of speculation.  Perhaps he is warning Israel against such an attack; perhaps this is some kind of feint.  Whatever the reason, things are certainly coming to a head.  I have heard reports to the effect that the feeling in Israel today is similar to the way it was in 1967 as Arab armies from Syria, Jordan and Egypt were amassing along Israel's borders in preparation to attack.


As you should remember, Israel responded to that threat by launching a surprise attack against the powerful Egyptian Air Force - destroying most of it while it was on the ground.  By doing so, they effectively won the Six Day War in the first hour and a half.


Israel always responds to existential threats.  The lesson of World War II is that Jews cannot afford to do otherwise.  In 1981 - to the condemnation of the world - it destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq before it could be loaded with fuel.  It did the same in 2007 to a Syrian nuclear reactor.  


Iran, having learned from these previous attacks, poses a much greater threat.  Its nuclear facilities are dispersed throughout that large country and the most important are buried deep underground to protect them from aerial attack.  An article in last Sunday's New York Times Magazine tells us that Israel feels like they have about a nine month window in which they can still deal a crippling blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions.  Hence the need to act soon.


What will be the outcome of such an attack if or when it happens?  As the Times article details, former Mossad chief Meir Dagan believes the attack will not only fail strategically, it will wreak havoc inside Israel.  Iran's terrorist ally Hezbollah is sitting on Israel's northern border with an arsenal of 50,000 rockets - many capable of reaching as far as Tel Aviv.  A much wider war is very possible.  A tremendous spike in oil prices - one that will make each of us long for the days of $4/gallon gasoline - is far from impossible.  If Israel attacks Iran, the entire world will likely feel the effects.


And if Israel does not attack Iran?  Well then, we may well witness yet another Holocaust in our lifetimes.  Or a nuclear armed Iran - which is forming alliances with countries like Venezuela - may try to sneak a nuclear weapon into the United States.  


One of the hardest lessons I have had to learn - and still need to keep relearning - is that problems don't just go away.  They need to be confronted.  Confronting them sooner rather than later minimizes the damage that will be done.  The allies had numerous opportunities to confront Hitler in the years leading up to World War II.  They chose instead to waver, to excuse, to appease and to dishonor themselves. The result of such debasement was the biggest war in history - and the destruction of European Jewry.


How things will play out in this terrible drama over the next weeks, months and years is known only in heaven.  You and I are, for all intents and purposes, powerless to impact the decision that will be made in Tehran, in Washington, in Jerusalem and perhaps elsewhere.  But one thing is certain for me - and I hope for all of you.  Whatever happens, however it all plays out, I will stand with my brothers and sisters in Israel. My prayers will be for their well being and for God's protection and care.


In the Song of the Sea, which we read this week, we say "With Your kindness You guided this people that You redeemed; You led them with Your might to Your holy abode."  May the Holy One, Blessed be He, continue to redeem His people, and shield them in peace in His holy abode.